Facebook Live 5/18- Answers

Hi everyone, I’m going to go over a lot of statistics today. I’m going to post an article on Facebook that reviews a lot of these statistics, and I’m going to pull a few statistics from the Department of Health.

Many questions ask about the actual risk rates. Using data from the Virginia Department of Health, we’ve had 31,140 people in Virginia hospitalized, of those 1,014 have died. That is, 3% of the people who have tested positive, have died. That is, 12 people out of 100,000 Virginians have died. That is .012% of the Virginia population, the numbers are very low. If you are hospitalized, you have a 26% chance of death, but 80-90% of people who get this don’t have to be hospitalized.

The United States as a whole have had 20 out of 100,000 people die. The news is reporting whole numbers. However, if you don’t report data in a sensible and comprehensible way that standardizes that data, you’re not really reporting actionable data. The news is reporting that the U.S. has more deaths than anywhere else in the world, however that is not exactly accurate. For example, Italy, France and the United Kingdom all had more than 50 deaths per 100,000. The U.S. has 20 per 100,000.

Many states have been opening up, and there have been no new surges. If we drill down on the deaths in the U.S., 50% of all deaths in the U.S. have come from 3 states: New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Another 20% come from six other states: Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Louisiana and California. This makes up 70% of the deaths. So, 30% of the deaths are spread across all but 9 states.

For some more data, 35% of all deaths nationwide were in nursing homes. In Virginia, that number is 57%. 80% of all deaths in the country were from those 65 and older. 60% of all deaths were 75 and older. In Virginia, 67% of deaths were 75 and older. Nationwide, only 8% of people who have died were younger than 55, less than 3% of deaths were from people under 45 years old. We know age is an important risk, and so is chronic disease. The Journal of American Medicine published a study that looked at New York, and found that 94% of those hospitalized had a chronic illness, 88% had two or more chronic illnesses. Remember the three biggest factors are obesity, hypertension and heart disease. Only 6% of anyone hospitalized did not have a preexisting condition.

What trends does this bring us too? This tells us that deaths are down, and rates of infection are down. In order to correct the number of positive tests we’re seeing, we can only count the number of positive tests we have, unlike Virginia. To measure the right data, the data has to be corrected for variability where you must look at percent positive. The highest we’ve been in this country is around the 20th percentile, and we’re down to 6-7% positive now.

If you’re not living in a nursing home, or not over 65 years old, or don’t have a serious medical condition, your chance of hospitalization is incredibly low, and your chance of death is even lower. We will have outbreaks, we will have epicenters, and people will continue to die. However, it will be at a rate that hospitals can manage the capacity and people can get the care they need.

This is a review of the data, because the data supports an opening of the economy. The highest rate of injury right now is economic because we have managed and contained the epidemiological one. This is important because people are scared. But again, if you don’t live in a nursing home, if you’re under the age of 65, or if you don’t have a chronic disease, your chances of getting sick are incredibly small.